Making a success out of college has become really difficult. I was a first-gen student sixty years ago. I made every mistake in the book. However, the world was a lot simpler then, and I managed to stagger through it all.
When I think about what it would be like to be a first-gen student today, it seems mind-boggling.
That got me to thinking about the students whose parents went to college. In certain ways, they have it worse. Their parents “know” how this college stuff works. Unfortunately, their parents don’t know how much the game has changed in the last 20-25 years:
The Supply vs Demand Equation Has Broken Down
Twenty years ago the economy was humming along. GDP growth was 4.5%. Thirty-four percent of high school graduates were going on to college. Colleges and universities were minting college graduates with shiny new bachelor’s degrees at a rate of 1,100,000 per year.
Remember those numbers.
In 2008 we were hit by the Great Recession, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis. It was a disaster for those graduating college at the time. (In 2011 53% of recent college grads were unemployed or underemployed.)
Annual GDP growth limped along below 2.0% for the next decade.
Our country is just now starting to recover. The Fed is estimating 2018 GDP growth at 3.3%.
However, with forty-five percent of high school grads now going on to college, colleges and universities are churning out 1,900,000 graduates with bachelor’s degrees every year. College grads are a-dime-a-dozen. There just aren’t enough suitable, well-paying jobs.
As a result many college grads end up underemployed, i.e. in jobs that don’t require a college degree:
Studies vary. The range is 40–50%.
The Average Academic Ability of Freshmen Has Eroded
I hate to be the bearer of unpleasant tidings, but with 45% going to college, many are just not “college material.”
https://steemit.com/education/@chhaylin/are-too-many-people-going-to-college-a-look-at-iq-distributions-tells-us-why-this-is-the-case
I understand this is a highly unpopular argument, but are you aware that 25% matriculating need one or more remedial classes before they can “get out of the gate?”
At a minimum parents should consider the College Board Benchmarks before launching Little Johnny out the door to Big Bucks U. https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/about/scores/benchmarks
Personally, I think Charles Murray, author of Real Education, has it right—college should be for the top 20% academically. That would translate to an SAT score of 1240.
The Return on Investment of a College Degree Has Degenerated
In the same time period tuition cost has gone up 200% while wages have been flat, diminishing/destroying the ROI of many degrees.
We are reaching the point where many degrees just don’t make any sense economically. For example, the salary of a beginning high school teacher is $40,000 where I live. A four-year Education degree at our leading state university is $110,000. (See notes.)
The Quality of a College Degree Has Continued to Decay
A bachelor’s degree isn’t what it used to be a half century ago. Read Academically Adrift.
Student Loan Borrowing Has Exploded
The amount of outstanding student loans has recently reached a new milestone—$1,500,000,000,000, up from $50,000,000,000 twenty years ago. That is a factor of 30X in two decades.
In 1990 only 5% of college grads had a loan balance of $25,000 or more.
By 2015 that percentage had jumped to 40%.
The average student loan balance for 2017 graduates was $39,400.
Summary
College in America just doesn’t work the way it used to when your parents matriculated.
The picture of post-secondary education in the US is not a pretty one. The “system” is a train wreck.
The response of parents, educators, politicians, et al.?
“Send more kids to college.”
My Midwest, run-of-the-mill local high school sends eighty percent of their graduates to college. The parents, my neighbors, think that’s great. Nobody pays any attention to whether or not there is any gainful outcome.
The answer is to send the “book smart” kids to college, and subsidize their education.
At the same time, we need to restore vocational training and stop stigmatizing “working with your hands.”
Notes:
A first-generation college student is defined as a student whose parents have not completed a bachelor’s degree. This means that, if successful, they will be the first in their immediate family to attain a bachelor’s degree.
I considered other titles for this post. Most high school guidance counselors don’t understand how the college landscape has changed.
https://steemit.com/education/@chhaylin/are-too-many-people-going-to-college-a-look-at-iq-distributions-tells-us-why-this-is-the-case
https://www.quora.com/When-do-you-think-the-cost-of-a-college-degree-will-no-longer-surpass-the-monetary-benefits/answer/Thomas-B-Walsh
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