The New York Times recently published a story exhorting their readers that we have an ongoing college enrollment crisis. 

“College Enrollment Drops, Even as the Pandemic’s Effects Ebb.” 

The editors at the New York Times seem to have forgotten Stephen R. Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, which was on their best seller list in 2005.  Habit #2 was, “Start with the end in mind.”  

Enrolling in college isn’t the “end” students should have in mind because success in college isn’t enrolling, almost any high school graduate can find a college or university that will accept them and cheerfully cash their parents’ checks. Success is graduating and getting one of the relatively few well-paying, professional jobs. 

For decades and decades, an ever-increasing number of America’s high school graduates rushed off to college campuses in expectation of improved employment prospects. At some point the Supply versus Demand equation flipped and the skyrocketing costs caused the ROI to drop below acceptable levels. In recent years, only one in three students succeed. For example, two out of five of those who manage to graduate end up underemployed, e.g. making lattes. 

This became embarrassingly obvious with the Great Recession of 2008. That’s the point where students began to figure this out. College enrollment peaked in 2010 at just over 21 million students. Attendance has been dropping every year since. However, we aren’t even close to achieving a balance of Supply and Demand. Probably half the students matriculating today would be better off opting for Plan B.