Since the Great Recession of 2008, the survey data for young people considering college is clear. Most students aren’t worried about “finding themselves” or pursuing their passions anymore.
Today, going to college is a means to an end—getting a good job.
Unfortunately, for most of these students, the outcome is not meeting their expectations.
Unlike their older siblings, they don’t have the economy to blame. Unemployment is 3.7%, while job openings are at a record high of 7.3 million.
In order to understand what’s going on, we’ll need to do some deconstruction.
Graduates
When we look at college graduates, we don’t see an unemployment issue. We do see a huge underemployment problem (43%).
You didn’t go to college with the idea of becoming a bartender, an Uber driver, a barista, a salesclerk at The Gap, or a home healthcare aide. According to the Federal Reserve and the Government Accounting Office, there are many, many college graduates that don’t earn more than high school graduates.
Some of the blame goes to the colleges and universities. By their very nature, they are not going to be able to rapidly react to the vicissitudes of their students and the employers.
In addition, they don’t view their mission as operating as a “trade school.” That isn’t “in their blood.”
However, I believe the heart of the problem lies elsewhere.
A decade ago Charles Murray wrote Real Education. His fundamental thesis was that “too many kids, many academically marginal, were going to college.” (When he wrote the book in 2008, about forty percent of high school graduates were going on to college. The percentage now is forty-five.)
Every year our colleges and universities churn out something like 1,900,000 newly minted graduates, proudly clenching their baccalaureate degrees. Unfortunately, the demand, around 1,100,000 well-paying, professional jobs, falls far short of the supply.
I can’t imagine that anyone has bothered to explain this to you, particularly, your high school guidance counselor, but if you join the stampede to the “halls of higher learning” and manage to graduate, you are going to enter into a cutthroat competition for a “good” job.
There was a time in America, many years ago, when you could major in anything. You would throw your mortarboard in the air, and, before it hit the ground, you had three job offers in hand.
Today, your resume matters—it needs to stand out.
Prospective employers have massive stacks of applications. They will be looking at your major, experiential learning activities, and work experience, struggling to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Dropouts
You, absolutely, must graduate.
With twenty-five percent of those attending freshman orientation requiring remedial classes, it should be no surprise that forty percent fail to meet that requirement in six years.
There was a time when “some college” on your resume had a financial value. This may not be true anymore. There is a Drexel University study that shows those who dropout are stigmatized in the job market. This would seem to make sense when you consider that employers have a bevy of college graduates available from which to pick and choose.
Conclusion
We used to view “going to college” as an investment decision. Today, it is more like buying a lottery ticket. It may pay off—perhaps in a spectacular fashion.
However, for most students, college is going to result in disappointment. For those students who leaned heavily on student loans, it will be a disaster.
Many high school graduates should be considering alternative, less risky post-secondary education opportunities.
Notes
For an alternative to an expensive, four-year degree, read A New U.
Fewer students are majoring in the humanities since The Great Recession Of 2008. For example, the number of history degrees, which peaked in 2007, has dropped forty-five percent.